The newspaper headlines begin to tell stories other than the North Korean shelling of the YeonPyungdo-island. It is not over by any means, the Defense Minister resigned shortly after the attack followed by the Army Chief of Staff.
The war of rhetoric between the right and the left within South Korea continues, although the right seems to have the upper hand for now. Some hardliners, including conservative Christians, insist that military retaliation is the only response Kim Jong-il understands and fault the current regime for timid reactions. There are many cautious calls for peace and reconciliation as well. Today (Dec. 20) the army held a firing exercise in the waters near the disputed northern line. While there have been many warnings from the North, it seems calm for now. I am quite certain that this will not escalate into an immediate confrontation. Knock on wood.
Many of the NGOs helping the people of North Korea have virtually suspended their operations for now, both for safety and to avoid bad publicity. The people of North who have no voice in this matter are the true victims, as is the case in many dictatorial societies. I am sure some of the low level officials in North Korea are also suffering from reduced cashflow, often called grease payment. The South Korean government also has denied travel permits to the businessmen who have operations in the joint industrial complex in Kaesung, just north of the demilitarized zone. The SK government fears that they may become hostages and severely limit their options should the conflict escalate.
None of these actions contributes to a long-term peaceful solution. I wonder what would. Most of the help SK provided over the years were short term immediate relief efforts for famine, flood and other disasters. Some programs have been running for many years, but the nature of the programs are for immediate relief of the symptoms rather than building capacity for NK to handle the problems on their own. Many stories of economic policy failures have leaked out. Failed currency devaluation, erratic policies of free consumer market activities point to lack of human infra-structure to manage more open economic activities which, in my opinion is necessary for any meaningful economic development of the country.
During the mid 90s I participated in a State Department funded program to train mid-level government bureaucrats from newly independent Central Asian countries on market based economy. Of course they did not become market economy experts overnight, but we hoped that they would feel confident enough to allow community development workers into their countries. PCUSA participates in such efforts by seconding our people to the NGOs working in the Central Asian countries. I wonder whether this would be possible in North Korea. No, I don't think NK will send hundreds of their officers to SK or US to learn market economy. If they did send, it is likely that most of them would be intelligence agents rather than community leaders.
But there is a hopeful sign. In October this year, the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology opened its doors to train tomorrow's leaders in science and industry including modern management systems. It is largely a Christian community effort, but apolitical and non-proselytizing. It is purely an effort to help a society to build up human capital to help themselves. It took a long time, but the NK government is satisfied that the leaders of PUST do not have any hidden motives to cause trouble for the NK regime. NK authorities selected the first class of around 150 students and they are in intensive English language training since all instructions will be in English. I pray that this kind of efforts take root and help build ties that can withstand minor skirmishes. Throughout mission history, education seems to have weathered social changes well, and I believe PUST will be successful as well. I am gathering information as to how we might help. I will share what I learn. You can learn about PUST a bit more here.
In the meanwhile we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
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